Sunday, November 16, 2008

Do you believe what you see, or see what you believe?

My teenage daughter, like most kids her age, loves the look of fast sports cars. She is particularly amused by the fact that she shares the same name with a Lotus sports car, the Elise.

One morning recently, as I was driving her to the school bus stop, she excitedly pointed out the car in front of us. "Look dad, it's an Elise." Until then, she had only seen the car in magazines and online. I gently pointed out that the car was not an Elise, but a Corvette. But she was not to be deterred, as she insisted it was an Elise. That is, until we pulled up next to the car and she could clearly see the Corvette badge.

Later I reflected on this incident and wondered what it was that made a teenager who had never seen (or had a live experience with) a Lotus Elise, believe her own mental image of the car more than the feedback from someone three times her age, who has actually seen (had an experience with) the car in question. Was it youthful self confidence, or worse? And, I wondered how often the same phenomena occurred in business settings. I have seen managers reviewing market data and completely disagreeing on the potential opportunities. I have seen financial data which suggested financial deterioration, interpreted in a favorable light. And I wondered, were these people really seeing the same things?